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Martin Odegaard has scored one goal this season, and it was about as insignificant as they come: a penalty kick during a 5-2 defeat of West Ham United in November. He recorded a handful of assists in all competitions, but the goal column is otherwise empty.
It is a drastic drop. Odegaard scored eight goals last season; he scored 15 goals in the campaign before that, which was his peak Arsenalcharts at the end of the season with Gabriel Martinelli. At a time when the lack of Arsenal’s relentless striker is being examined, underlined a winning performance by Newcastle’s Alexander Isak in the Emirates this week, as well as the need for fresh swing on the wingOdegaard’s goals are needed now more than ever.
Last season’s numbers, Arteta said on Friday, are simply not sustainable. “When you look at the probability and the patterns, to sustain an attacking midfielder who scored 15 goals like two years ago, it doesn’t happen because it hasn’t happened in 50 years.” Frank Lampard offers a counter to that point, having scored 15 goals in nine of 10 prolific seasons in the middle of his Chelsea career. But the truth is that Odegaard’s catch of 15 was against an expected goals tally of 9.9, and the laws of xG dictate that he will regress.
“He’s trying, he’s trying very hard,” added Arteta. “He had some great chances, missed some opportunities. We’re just helping him and making sure he’s comfortable enough to shoot when he needs to because he’s so good at it.”
However, the problem is deeper than bad luck or a lack of confidence in front of goal. Odegaard has taken just 1.59 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, down significantly from 2.68 and 2.18 in the previous two campaigns and his lowest rate since 2020-21. All the same: his xG per 90 minutes has fallen to a four-season low, while his target engagement per 90 of 0.39 is down from last season’s 0.50 and 0.52 the previous campaign.
In short, Arsenal’s captain doesn’t receive the ball in dangerous positions nearly as often, doesn’t have as many shots on goal, and when he does, he doesn’t find the back of the net.
There are some mitigating factors at play here. The Odegaard suffered a sprained ankle while playing for Norway in September he erased two months of his season. He was excellent on his return, creating goals against Chelsea and Nottingham Forest, but has since been a shadow of the brilliant player who led Arsenal’s attack with such swagger last season.
Having only recently recovered from illness, Odegaard looked lost at times during the 2-0 Carabao Cup semi-final first leg defeat to Newcastle, at one point stumbling in space and losing possession of the ball as if it were an unfamiliar shape, like a dad who he didn’t play with 5 a side for six months. He seemed reluctant to drive into the box and break into attacking spaces.
“He came back from injury and for the first maybe week or two you have that extra energy,” explained Arteta. “Then you play every three days…”
Of course, something similar could be said about most of Arsenal’s forwards at the moment. Odegaard is a player who thrives on connections, a floating connection between different parts of the team, and that chemistry is gone all over the pitch. Bukayo Saka’s injury has also been a hindrance, someone who instinctively runs into the path of an imaginary Odegaard pass that only they can see coming.
Asked if Odegaard was missing his assistant, Arteta said: “That can be an element of it, obviously. There are a lot of circumstances, but it’s inevitable to think when you have that kind of chemistry with that player, and you’re not next to each other, you’re going to notice something is different.”
Arsenal fans have called for new signings, especially with Napoli’s maverick talent Khvich Kvaratskhelia on the market. But new recruits will be hard to come by, especially in January. “We have certain limitations,” Arteta said. “We have a lot of gaps and a lot of things we have to cover to become the team we want to be. And then availability [new signings]even if you want them, sometimes it’s not possible.”
Meanwhile, the relentless rush continues unabated. Injuries and suspensions will continue to bite. The balls will continue fly unpredictably over the bar. Right now, with four competitions in full swing, Arteta is relying heavily on leaders like Odegaard.
That point is likely to be underlined by the manager’s choice this weekend, when Arsenal play Manchester United in the third round of the FA Cup. This should be an opportunity to rotate the team and refresh its starting line-up, but a battered and battered squad offers limited options. Gabriel Jesus may come into the starting line-up, while Raheem Sterling could make a rare appearance, but Odegaard will almost certainly start out of sheer necessity, even if he could benefit from a rare rest.
Even without the goals, the captain still contributes with his leadership, the way he sets the pace, as well as his set delivery in Saka’s absence. He guides the press intelligently, leading his teammates to Arteta’s rhythm. Arteta appreciates those qualities and still disputes the idea that Arsenal lack goals, pointing to their phenomenal total in 2024: a total of 114, more than in any other calendar year this century. “I don’t think so [goals] they are a problem,” he said bluntly.
However, in 13 out of 30 games this season, Arsenal have scored one or none. The defensive story is happier, roughly matching Liverpool in expected goals conceded. But Arteta’s side lag behind in the world in expected goals scored, with just 33.9 to Liverpool’s 44.1, and sit seventh in the Premier League behind Bournemouth, Tottenham and Newcastle. For all their obvious front three problems, perhaps Odegaard’s declining performance is the ultimate symbol of Arsenal’s struggles.