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IMore than a century has passed since an established political party was successfully overrun by an insurgent newcomer, when the Liberals gave way Work.
The the rise of UK reform to its status as a political force capable of posing a threat to the Conservatives – even with only five MPs, despite a 15 percent share of the vote – highlights the order between Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch about who has the most members.
However, if Reform to get the job done, he’ll need more than a website counter boasting to his supporters; it will take defections at all levels, from ordinary voters (22 per cent of Tories from the July election say they will now vote for reform) to councillors, donors and MPs.
The reforms have already courted the Tories, including businessman Zia Yusuf, who is now party chairman; billionaire Nick Candywho is its new treasurer; former members of parliament Andrea Jenkyns and Aidan Burley; and Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomery. But it needs more high-profile names.
Senior figures claim that there are many more former and even current ones Tory MPs are getting ready to join in, but the really big fish have yet to bite.
Part of the problem could be that senior reform figures have very different ideas about who is best to attract. But if 2025 is to be the year that takes the party to greater victories, then some of the names on its various wish lists (depending on who you talk to) must come through. Here are some numbers that are being targeted.
The lost leader
The idea that Boris Johnson could defect UK reform it looks utterly fantastic, and he has previously said he will not leave the Conservatives. But The Independent said the figures in Farage‘s party that some of them would like it to happen, and they don’t think it’s completely impossible.
The arrival of billionaire donor Candy makes this speculation a little more interesting. He brings cash to the party, but has a long-standing friendship with both Farage and Johnson, as well as Donald Trump, who could prove to be an important link. One source said Candy was exactly the kind of person who could bring Farage and Johnson together, and then Johnson, on reform.
Furthermore, Badenoch’s Chemistry The election as Tory leader has pretty much closed the door on Johnson returning as a Tory MP, given that she played a role in his downfall.
The thought of Johnson in Reform may not appeal to Farage; history shows that there is never room for two huge personalities in the parties he led. But if it could be pulled, it could be the end of the Tories and represent a realignment on the right.
True, that would almost certainly only happen if the Conservative Party had already collapsed, leaving little choice.
Darling on the right
Suella Braverman is a name often cited in discussions of possible defections. The former interior minister certainly has right-wing credentials for reform, and her husband Raul recently defected to the party.
But she was clear with The Independent that she does not plan to follow her husband. He is understood to feel loyal to his electoral party and still harbors Tory leadership ambitions.
However, the reform haunted her. She would provide the kind of strong, charismatic female presence the party desperately lacks at the moment, and that would be a signal from the Tory right that the game is up.
Robert Jenrick has been regularly touted as a possible defector since losing out in the final leadership vote with Badenoch. There appears to be little evidence that he wants to defect, despite becoming an anti-immigration hardliner whose rhetoric often mirrors that of reform.
The reality is that if Tory MPs defect, they are likely to come from the list of people who supported Jenrick.
Brexiteers
Mark Francoischairman of the European Research Group (ERG) and in many ways the epitome of a Brexiteer MP, he was certainly the target of discussions within Reforma.
However, he is understood to remain angry at the way Reform split the vote for many of his Tory friends who subsequently lost their seats, and finds it difficult to forgive Farage or Richard Tice, even though he is very much on their page ideologically. .
Francois has also always maintained that he is too entrenched in the Tory family to want to switch parties. For all this, Badenoch wisely gave him the No. 2 job on her defense team.
Jacob Rees-Mogg would certainly be a high-profile scalp if he decided to defect. He is a friend of Farage and others in the reform, as well as a fellow host of GB News, next to whom his sister Annunciata was a Brexit MEP. Still, his tribal ties to the Tories make the move seem unlikely (though not impossible).
Defeated MPs
Marco Longhiformer MP for Dudley North, is someone whose name comes up often. He was heavily wooed before the general election, but resisted. There were suggestions that he was offered a large sum of money to defect, which he said he had not. But he remains close friends with Lee Anderson, who eventually joined Reform.
Again, there is little evidence that he would change, and there has been plenty of denial – although it should be noted that he has Jenkyns she also resisted the charms of Reform before the election, and is now the party’s candidate for mayor of Lincolnshire.
Other so-called red wall Tory MPs, such as Brendan Clarke-Smith, are also mentioned (formerly Bassetlaw) and Tom Hunt (formerly Ipswich). But both have made it clear they want to stand for the Tories again.
A thinker
Phillip Blond – director of the RespPublica think tank, conservative visionary, former adviser to David Cameron, inventor of red Toryism and the Great Society – is a name to watch out for. In some ways, he is among the more likely they defect.
The blonde was prevented by the Conservatives from running for parliament – probably because he is too self-contained and rather outspoken. But he is one of the few true intellectuals in conservatism, and would be quite a catch for reform. Maybe all the party needs to do is give him a won seat to run.
Blondo’s defection would be comparable to the departure of Con Home founder Montgomerie, which was a shock; it would mean that not only money goes to the conservatives, but also those with ideas.