‘Frozen winter’ for British artists as output falls
And across the Channel: Britain’s manufacturing sector also reported declining output.
The UK business purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to an 11-month low of 47.0 in December, down from 48.0 in November and below the previous estimate of 47.3, according to S&P Global. The PMI has remained below its neutral 500 mark – indicating a deterioration – in each of the past three months.
It was the trucks of the big companies but – in an annoying sign of the state – very high among the small and medium-sized companies.
Rob Dobsondirector at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
Manufacturers are increasingly facing the trend towards outer space. Business sentiment is now at its lowest level for two years, as the new government’s rhetorical policy announcements and confidence changes dampen and reduce costs at UK factories and their customers. SMEs have been hit particularly hard in the latest trends.
The winter snow sends this labor through the labor. December saw the most active routes to staffing levels since February. Some companies are now working to restructure their operations ahead of the rise of employer national insurance and the phasing in of the minimum wage in 2025.
Key events
The picture is bleak for the UK manufacturing sector, with most indicators showing less confidence in the future than the previous PMI indicators.
But 2025 should have something more positive in supply, according to Pantheum Macroeconomics, a consultancy. Elliott Jordan-DoakA senior economist at the UK company said:
Despite the weakness in the manufacturing PMI in December, we think it will steadily improve in 2025.
Businesses have been rocked by domestic changes in the form of NICs hikes, and sudden external changes in the form of the threat of a global trade war. But fiscal policies are more about spending than taxation, which will mechanically lift the PMI.
Even if you have a low level of pain, dignissim in a low level, so that you have a good reputation. The MPC will also cut rates in 2025, which should reduce borrowing costs for firms and boost sentiment. We expect three sections in 2025, one more than the current market price.
The UK manufacturing PMI does not paint a rosy picture of the sector. S&P Global has a litany of factors holding back: “domestic market sentiment, picking up buyers, efforts to avoid inventory building at manufacturers’ own warehouses and the impact of weaker demand from European customers.”
It’s not in the UK government’s role to help with some of that, but S&P Global also reported that some companies are cutting back on buying due to “higher cost environments, sometimes linked to restructuring operations ahead of rising labor costs and tax payments.”
After that the chancellor raised Rachel the prefect minimum wage and employers’ national insurance contributions at the Budget of the Churches of October.
‘Frozen winter’ for British artists as output falls
And across the Channel: Britain’s manufacturing sector also reported declining output.
The UK business purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to an 11-month low of 47.0 in December, down from 48.0 in November and below the previous estimate of 47.3, according to S&P Global. The PMI has remained below its neutral 500 mark – indicating a deterioration – in each of the past three months.
It was the trucks of the big companies but – in an annoying sign of the state – very high among the small and medium-sized companies.
Rob Dobsondirector at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
Manufacturers are increasingly facing the trend towards outer space. Business sentiment is now at its lowest level for two years, as the new government’s rhetorical policy announcements and confidence changes dampen and reduce costs at UK factories and their customers. SMEs have been hit particularly hard in the latest trends.
The winter snow sends this labor through the labor. December saw the most active routes to staffing levels since February. Some companies are now working to restructure their operations ahead of the rise of employer national insurance and the phasing in of the minimum wage in 2025.
European manufacturers reported a further drop in activity in December according to the latest reading of the purchasing managers’ index (PMI).
The index dropped to 45.1 in December, from 45.2 in November and a quarterly low, according to company data. S&P Global. That’s well below the 50 mark, which indicates growth in the area.
There was considerable regional variation. Here’s what S&P Global had to say:
Countries located in the south continued to do business, with Spain and Greece showing stronger improvements in the conditions of the party sector. The expansions here were more than offset, however, by the big three of Germany, France, and Italy, all of which were once again established as deflections. France was the most prominent, which saw the manufacturing PMI sink to its last level since May 2020.
Cyrus de la Rubiafinancial leader at Hamburg Commercial Bankhe said, who sponsors surveys;
Even in December, the manufacturing sector does not carry any holiday cheer. It’s the same old story – down. New orders have fallen even more than in the previous two months, which has crushed any hope of recovery. This view is supported by an accelerated decline in order backlogs.
The Coventry Building Society has completed the purchase of the Co-operative Bank, after a £780m deal They agreed with their owners to be separated by a fence.
The new owners will be firmly hoping to end the period of turmoil for the Co-op Bank based on the scandal it has left behind. £1.5bn black hole. His reputation also endured with the chair of former banker Paul Flowers, former Labor councilor and Methodist church minister, nicknamed “Crystal Methodist”; admitted to possession of Midia crystal cocaine and ketamine in 2014
Coventry, the UK’s second largest building society, has left the way open for the Co-op Bank brand. The bank was robbed by the wider Co-op group after a computer hack.
European gas prices will rise when Ukraine ends the Russian pipeline deal
European gas prices rallied as traders wait to see if Ukraine’s move to cut off Russian gas will prompt a more prompt drawdown of reserves.
Bloomberg News reported that the European gas benchmark rose a month earlier by as much as 4.3% to €51 megawatt-hour, the highest since October 2023.
An agreement to pipe Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipeline survived three years of war between the two countries. However, the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said in a post on social media that the country had inflicted “one of the biggest defeats on Moscow” and that sales had finally been halted.
Russia’s Gazprom said it stopped sending gas at 5am GMT on Wednesday.
The effect of the price cuts was not immediately clear because Europe has had to scramble to replace its own gas supply, including by way of imports from the US. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the share of Russian gas in the European market has fallen from about 35% to about 8%, as European countries sought to diversify supplies.
Henry AllenThe emperor at Deutsche Bankhe said:
It is now worth noting that prices are still well below their levels that were seen throughout 2022, but European gas storages ended in 2024 at their last level in three years, and recent price increases are expected to add further. inflationary pressures.
UK house prices are rising at the fastest rate in two years
Mark Sweney
House prices rose for the fourth consecutive December, ending 2024 “strongly” with the average cost of a home hitting £269,426, according to Nationwide.
The company’s monthly researcher found prices rose 0.7% in December last month, with annual growth in the value of a typical UK home up 4.7%.
Robert Gardner, the Nation’s chief economist, said that despite a strong end to the year, the average house price still remained below an all-time high in the summer of 2022. He said:
Mortgage market activity and surprisingly soft home prices in 2024 have proven to be ongoing affordability challenges facing potential buyers.
It is expected that the level of activity in the housing market will increase through 2024 with the number of mortgages approved for home purchases each month rising above pre-pandemic levels towards the end of the year.
It is a more positive start to the new year in European markets than in Asia.
Here are the opening breakdowns via Reuters:
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EUROPE’S STOXX 600 UP 0.1%
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Britain FTSE 100 FLAT, GERMAN DAX UP 0.2%
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GALLERY CAC 40 FLAT; Spain’s IBEX will raise 0.3%
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EURO STOXX INDEX UP 0.1%; EURO PLAGA RED ASULA up 0.1%
Trump’s threat of trade damage has overshadowed the Chinese factories this year
Good morning and new year! Welcome to the first live business blog of 2025, covering business, financial markets and finance forever.
It’s a new year, but it’s likely familiar to many residents and executives around the world as they contemplate the imminent start of another term in the White House. Donald Trump.
Chinese device data released on Thursday suggest that hope of a renewed trade war it will hurt Factory activity in the world’s second-largest economy continued to expand in December, according to data company Caixin’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI). But the index, at 50.5 points, came in lower than the 51.7 expected by economists from Reuters.
Weak manufacturing data appeared to contribute to market-selling Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s benchmark index fell by 2.7% on Thursday, while Hong Kong’s Seng index fell by 2.1%. Japan’s Nikkei also fell 1%.
China’s yuan also hit its lowest point in more than a year against the US dollar in offshore trading. The yuan fell to a 14-month low of 7.31 per dollar.
Business sentiment played a role in the drop in manufacturing PMI. Business confidence fell to the lowest since September amid “concerns about the growth and trade outlook, especially amid the threat of US tariffs,” according to Caixin.
Wang Zhesenior economist at Caixin Insight Grouphe said:
Exports are drawn into demand amid mounting uncertainties from the overseas economic environment and global trade. The corresponding indicator was in contracting territory for the fourth time in the past five months.
The business was hopelessly weakened. Concerns among listed companies are related to the economic recovery and the trade conflict between China and the US. Expectations for future output continued to rise, but estimates slipped more than three points from November.
Meanwhile, the annual seasons surveys Economists around the world are also flagging concerns that Trump will give protectionist growth. A survey of 220 economists found that the president-elect’s policies are expected to slow growth and spur inflation.
goals
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9am GMT: Eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) (final reading December; previous: 45.2 points; consensus: 45.2 points)
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9:30 am GMT: UK manufacturing PMI (final reading December; prev.: 48; consensus: 47.3)
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1:30 pm GMT: US initial jobless claims (week of December 28; prev.: 219,000; cons.: 224,000)
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2:45 pm GMT: US manufacturing PMI (last reading December; prev.: 49.7; consensus: 48.3)