Dramatic lead change, but race still too close to call – what we know so far
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The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki has been given a narrow lead in the Polish presidential race after an updated late exit poll commissioned by the country’s three leading broadcasters unexpectedly put him ahead of the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski.
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The late poll – taking into account some first official results – has Nawrocki ahead at 50.7% to Trzaskowski’s 49.3%.
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In an earlier exit poll, Trzaskowski led by 50.3% to 49.7%.
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The results continue to be within the margin of error for the poll, as the race remains too close to call.
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Further late late poll numbers are expected between midnight and 1am local time (11pm to midnight BST).
Key events
A potential Nawrocki win is also likely to be welcomed by the US.
A month ago, he met US president Donald Trump at the White House, and in the last few days got public backing from Kristi Noem, the US secretary of homeland security in the Trump administration.
Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Rzeszów, Poland, Noem said:
I just had the opportunity to meet with Karol, and listen, he needs to be the next president of Poland. Do you understand me?
She then added:
Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country. You can be that shining city on a hill that the rest of Europe and the world will watch and know how strong you are.
The defeated ultranationalist candidate in Romania’s presidential election rerun George Simion is among the first European politicians to comment on the expected result of the Polish election.
He tweeted:
Poles are very close to a historic victory.
Pray for Poland, for freedom, common sense and national sovereignty! @NawrockiKn
You remember that rural municipality of Siekierczyn in south-western Poland that I mentioned earlier, where the first round vote two weeks ago was won by Trzaskowski by a single vote?
I have just checked their results tonight and it swung for Nawrocki, who won it by 72 votes.
Karol Nawrocki widens narrow lead in early morning poll – what we know so far
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The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), has widened his lead over the pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in the late, late exit poll by Ipsos, commissioned by major broadcasters.
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The latest update, published past 1am local time, puts him 2 percentage points ahead of the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by the coalition government led by Donald Tusk (1:10).
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The figure is the pollster’s final estimate for the race, as vote counts continue across the country (1:37).
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If confirmed, a Nawrocki win would be a major blow for the country’s pro-EU government and prolong the current political deadlock in the country (00:07) as well as complicate the country’s position in Europe (00:29).
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The results comes after a dramatic turnaround given the first exit poll published just as the polls closed had suggested a narrow win for Trzaskowski by 0.6pp (21:00), making him declare a victory (21:02).
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Official results will keep coming throughout the night, with the final declaration expected late morning or early afternoon on Monday.
Late late poll – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
If you’re confused about all these exit and late polls and extremely complex ways in which they are calculated: hey, welcome to Polish politics.
But let me try to explain.
The late late poll is essentially the pollster, Ipsos, going back to the polling stations they conducted the exit poll in, checking the official results at 90% of them, and adjusting their calculations for what they find.
Effectively, that’s their best estimate of what they think the result is going to be.
The margin of error here is meant to be 0.5% each way for each candidate, meaning that – unless the poll is completely wrong – the race could be over.
Our attention will now be shifting towards the official results as reported by the National Electoral Commission, or PKW.
As of 1:30am local time, they have received reports from 61.2% of all polling stations, and have Nawrocki way ahead at 54.3% to 45.7% for Trzaskowski.
The result should definitely get much closer as large polling stations in big cities – natural strongholds for Trzaskowski – report their results later (due to sheer numbers of votes that need to be counted).
You can follow them on PKW website here, or on a (much easier to use) Poland Elects website here.
It’s very hard to see how Trzaskowski could possibly close that gap.
The final results are expected by late morning or early afternoon on Monday.
Late late poll: Nawrocki widens lead to 2pp
Pollster Ipsos, working for three of Poland’s largest broadcasters, has just updated it’s late late poll at 1am which includes some partial official results, and it shows an even bigger Nawrocki lead: 51% to 49%.
Sign of rightwing alliance to challenge Tusk at 2027 parliamentary election
One thing to note from both exit polls is that Nawrocki is projected to have won over almost 90% (!) of the people who voted for the libertarian far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation party (“Konfederacja”), who came third in the first round vote two weeks ago.
Here’s more on his phenomenon, which I studied going to his home town of Toruń.
Mentzen interviewed both candidates on his YouTube and eventually declined to formally endorse either of them, saying he needs to position himself as an alternative to the duopoly of the main two parties.
But it seems like his electorate has a clear favourite.
If PiS takes the presidency, as the late poll suggests, the two parties could combine again – formally or not – before the 2027 parliamentary election to form a new rightwing coalition to challenge Donald Tusk’s politically diverse and fragile government.
One to watch.
Controversies surrounding Nawrocki’s candidacy
If Nawrocki gets confirmed as the president-elect, expect his critics to get back to asking questions about some of the scandals that affected his campaign in the last few weeks before the vote.
He faced questions over the circumstances in which he bought an apartment from an elderly man, with suggestions that he acted improperly and failed to meet his obligations to provide care as part of the transaction. He denies the allegations.
He was also hit by media reports that he was allegedly involved in procuring sex workers while working as a student security guard at a hotel (a claim he also strongly denies).
It was also revealed that Nawrocki took part in an organised fight between 140 football hooligans 20 years ago as part of a firm linked to Lechia Gdańsk football club.
Responding to criticism, he called it an act of “noble combat” and referenced his past as an amateur boxer.
Prof Aleks Szczerbiak from University of Sussex tried to explain to me earlier this week why none of that changed his ratings among his core electorate:
“You get to a tipping point … where a lot of people start to think they are just coming up with stuff to discredit this guy …
[Hooliganism] does fit with his image that ‘this is a tough guy who takes no prisoners, not afraid to go into a fight representing me and my interests’ … It’s actually a double-edged sword.”
Foreign policy scenario in case of Nawrocki’s win
Jon Henley
And here are the relevant paragraphs from Jon Henley’s foreign policy analysis published this weekend:
“A Nawrocki victory would put the stalemate that has existed between government and president since 2023 on a much more permanent footing,” said Nicolai von Ondarza of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
“It would change the political calculation within Poland itself – and it would refocus European attention on the unfulfilled promises on rule-of-law that are actually the basis of Poland’s renewed relationship with the EU.”
While EU leaders would be unlikely to turn the screw on Tusk (“The last thing they would want to do is weaken him further,” Von Ondarza said), the prime minister’s influence in key decisions, such as the bloc’s future budget, would inevitably wane.
Nawrocki would back the PiS government’s approach of “building alternative EU alliances”, for example with Hungary and Slovakia, “as the most effective way of advancing Poland’s interests”, said Aleks Szczerbiak of the University of Sussex.
Szczerbiak added that Nawrocki would certainly also prioritise maintaining close ties with the US, which he has said is Poland’s only credible security guarantor, and “oppose the development of a European defence capability outside Nato structures”.
Piotr Buras of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank agreed: “Nawrocki has been heavily critical of Tusk’s backing for Europe’s strategic security shift away from reliance on the US. He is a Trumpist; he was invited to the White House. There will be a constant tension there, around security policy.”
Tensions between Tusk and Nawrocki would be exacerbated by splits that already exist within the prime minister’s disparate coalition of centrists, progressive leftists and conservatives, with policy over Ukraine already a victim of political divisions.
There is broad consensus in Poland on the need to continue military aid to Ukraine. But Tusk himself has had to acknowledge public concern around the coalition of the willing, saying Poland would not participate, and over Ukraine’s EU membership.
Nawrocki has gone further, tapping into Polish anti-Ukrainian sentiment over refugees and strongly criticising Kyiv and its EU and Nato accession plans.
The former Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki, of the Law and Justice party, claimed in an earlier interview with Poland’s public broadcaster TVP that as much as “10 to 15 per cent” of exit poll respondents declined to tell pollsters who they voted for.
If confirmed, this could offer an explanation for the massive swing in the late poll, as that’s when the earlier numbers got adjusted after looking at the actual early results.
I’m sure we will hear more about this tonight (and in the coming days).
Domestic scenario in case of Nawrocki’s win
A quick reminder why does it all matter, from my curtain raiser before today’s vote:
While the role of the Polish president is largely ceremonial, it carries some influence over foreign and defence policy and a critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which the current government, led by Donald Tusk, does not have.
At stake is whether Tusk’s government will be able to make progress on its electoral promises on the rule of law and social issues, including abortion and LGBTQ rights, after 18 months of difficult cohabitation with the opposition president, Andrzej Duda.
A Nawrocki win would prolong the deadlock, making it difficult if not impossible for the government to pass any big reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
“Tusk knows the stakes and that if Nawrocki wins, he’s got a lame-duck administration for the next couple of years. And it will be worse than with Duda as Nawrocki will come in fresh, with a new mandate from what effectively turned into a referendum on the government,” Prof Aleks Szczerbiak, who teaches east and central European politics at the University of Sussex, said.
Dramatic lead change, but race still too close to call – what we know so far
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The populist-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki has been given a narrow lead in the Polish presidential race after an updated late exit poll commissioned by the country’s three leading broadcasters unexpectedly put him ahead of the pro-European Warsaw mayor, Rafał Trzaskowski.
-
The late poll – taking into account some first official results – has Nawrocki ahead at 50.7% to Trzaskowski’s 49.3%.
-
In an earlier exit poll, Trzaskowski led by 50.3% to 49.7%.
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The results continue to be within the margin of error for the poll, as the race remains too close to call.
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Further late late poll numbers are expected between midnight and 1am local time (11pm to midnight BST).
Jakub Krupa
I told you it was going to be a long night.
If late poll holds, we will work to bring down Tusk’s government, senior PiS MP says
If you’re still digesting what this could mean for Poland if these late poll numbers get confirmed, let me help you.
A senior PiS lawmaker and former education minister, Przemysław Czarnek, just told TV Republika:
“If these polls hold and Karol Nawrocki becomes president-elect tomorrow morning … I can reassure you that maybe not starting tomorrow, but from Tuesday, we will begin very energetic work in order to give the Polish people another gift – the end of Tusk’s government.”
He suggested the Law and Justice party would approach some government MPs to offer them “a longer perspective of serving Poland over the next years” in a hope to get them to defect and form a new rightwing coalition in the parliament.
Late poll plot twist – snap analysis
This remains still too close to call, but that’s a big, big plot twist.
Just to help you understand what’s going on: the late poll is essentially the exit poll, updated with partial results from 50% of polling stations where they conducted the poll.
Some PO lawmakers appearing on TV over the last hour or so kind of implied that was expected as the first polling stations to report are usually smaller and rural, so naturally PiS-leaning, but it will all change again when the larger polling stations report their numbers.
Having said that, that’s a big swing.
We will get another update – a new late, late poll – at about 1am, with some results from 90% of the polling stations that they ran the exit poll at.