London left embarrassed amid fears Trump could back Russia’s plan – analysis
Dan Sabbagh
David Lammy had been expecting to host a fresh round of Ukraine peace talks in London today, bringing together the US, Ukraine and Europe and so maintain relationships between traditional allies even as direct US-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war continue.
But the British minister has been embarrassed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s sudden decision late on Tuesday not to turn up and a rising chorus of leaks apparently from the US and Russia designed to derail the discussions and to promote the idea that the most significant discussions are those taking place directly between Washington and Moscow.
Initial indications are that Russia is willing to trade territory it does not control in Ukraine – in effect fresh air – for a US recognition of its 2014 seizure of Crimea, in other words a formal acknowledgement that it is possible to change borders by force, in effect creating an extraordinary precedent.
The Kremlin’s signals are carefully calibrated and almost certainly designed to make it difficult for Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s leadership has repeatedly signalled – as Zelenskyy repeated on Tuesday – that it could not legally recognise the seizure of Crimea or any of its other territory that Russia occupies.
But Russia is banking on the idea that Ukraine is weary after over three years of war and that its proposal is a reasonable counter to western suggestions, backed by the US, Ukraine and Europe, that there should be an immediate and full ceasefire to allow other talks to take place.
It is so far unclear how far Russia is serious even in this offer at a time when it has seemingly stepped up attacks on Ukrainian civilians with nine killed in a bus attack today. But that may develop quickly in an environment where briefing to the media is coming ahead of diplomatic niceties.
And with Donald Trump seemingly desperate for a quick ceasefire and frustrated with the lack of progress, it is a proposal the White House may start pushing in public.
Key events
Kremlin: talks continue with US, but no direct discussions with Ukraine or Europe
The Kremlin has said that Russia is engaged in direct talks with the US over the Ukraine war, but that there are no ongoing discussions with Europe or with Ukraine.
In his daily media briefing, Tass reports Dmitry Peskov also dismissed media reports of what might be in any US-Russian peace proposal, saying that there is a lot of fake news around.
He said there was still a lot to be worked out on any potential settlement, and that Russia remains opposed to the deployment of any European force inside Ukraine.
Peskov added that the situation was quite fluid, but cautioned that negotiations should take place in silence rather than in the media.
Asked specifically about US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff visiting Moscow, Peskov declined to comment. However, he did say Russia welcomed efforts by the US to mediate the conflict.
Russia staged its latest invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, having seized Crimea in 2014.
Russia’s defence ministry claimed on Wednesday its forces had gained control over the village of Tarasivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The claim has not been verified.
Pjotr Sauer
The FT on Tuesday reported that the Kremlin would soften its demands in direct discussions with the US, and would accept a freezing of the conflict on the frontline if the US agreed that Crimea, seized by Moscow in 2014, belonged to Russia.
A source familiar with Moscow’s thinking confirmed to the Guardian that Vladimir Putin has offered to freeze the conflict in Ukraine along the current frontlines during recent talks with Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump’s envoy.
However, the source cautioned that it remains unclear what other demands Putin may present – and warned that the apparent concession could be a tactic to draw Trump into accepting broader Russian terms. In addition to previously reported demands, such as Ukraine not joining Nato, Russia could also seek an end to western military aid for Kyiv and a ban on the presence of western troops in Ukraine.
Russian state media Tass reports that Ukraine’s armed forces attacked the Belgorod region with 142 drones in the last 24 hours. It also reports that two houses have been attacked and three more damaged in the Kursk region after they were struck by Ukrainian drones. Acting governor Alexander Khinshtein reported no casualties.
In Ukraine an air alert has sounded in the Kherson region.
London left embarrassed amid fears Trump could back Russia’s plan – analysis
Dan Sabbagh
David Lammy had been expecting to host a fresh round of Ukraine peace talks in London today, bringing together the US, Ukraine and Europe and so maintain relationships between traditional allies even as direct US-Russia talks to end the Ukraine war continue.
But the British minister has been embarrassed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio’s sudden decision late on Tuesday not to turn up and a rising chorus of leaks apparently from the US and Russia designed to derail the discussions and to promote the idea that the most significant discussions are those taking place directly between Washington and Moscow.
Initial indications are that Russia is willing to trade territory it does not control in Ukraine – in effect fresh air – for a US recognition of its 2014 seizure of Crimea, in other words a formal acknowledgement that it is possible to change borders by force, in effect creating an extraordinary precedent.
The Kremlin’s signals are carefully calibrated and almost certainly designed to make it difficult for Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine’s leadership has repeatedly signalled – as Zelenskyy repeated on Tuesday – that it could not legally recognise the seizure of Crimea or any of its other territory that Russia occupies.
But Russia is banking on the idea that Ukraine is weary after over three years of war and that its proposal is a reasonable counter to western suggestions, backed by the US, Ukraine and Europe, that there should be an immediate and full ceasefire to allow other talks to take place.
It is so far unclear how far Russia is serious even in this offer at a time when it has seemingly stepped up attacks on Ukrainian civilians with nine killed in a bus attack today. But that may develop quickly in an environment where briefing to the media is coming ahead of diplomatic niceties.
And with Donald Trump seemingly desperate for a quick ceasefire and frustrated with the lack of progress, it is a proposal the White House may start pushing in public.
Ukraine delegation arrives in London after top-level talks downgraded
Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has arrived in London, accompanied by Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov and foreign minister Andrii Sybiha.
In a series of posts to social media Yermak said “despite everything, we will work for peace.”
“Today we will talk about ways to achieve a complete and unconditional ceasefire as the first step towards a full-fledged settlement process and achieving a just and sustainable peace.”
He said the path was not easy, but Ukraine remained committed to it, and that the positions taken by Ukraine in previous talks showed that his country was not an obstacle to peace.
The number of people injured by a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia yesterday has increased to 42, including a pregnant woman, according to local officials.
Dan Sabbagh
Dan Sabbagh is the Guardian’s defence and security editor
The UK Foreign Office has confirmed that ministerial Ukraine peace talks with US and European counterparts due to be held today have been postponed, amid speculation that Russia has abandoned its claims to Ukrainian territory it does not occupy, and after US secretary of state Marco Rubio said he could not attend.
A short statement from the Foreign Office announced that ministerial meetings that had been scheduled to start this morning would not now take place and would be replaced by behind the scenes discussions held by officials, clarifying a carefully worded statement made late last night by foreign secretary David Lammy after he had spoken to Rubio.
Posting on social media just before midnight, Lammy said his discussions with Rubio were productive but hinted that they would take place at a slightly lower level. “Talks continue at pace and officials will meet in London tomorrow. This is a critical moment for Ukraine, Britain and Euro-Atlantic security,” he had said.
Britain had placed an important emphasis on the talks, with delegations from France and Germany also due to participate, but the downgrade to the discussions comes as leaks suggest that Russia is willing to abandon its territorial claims to three Ukrainian regions it only partially occupies in return for the US recognising the annexation of Crimea.
Rubio indicated he would be “rescheduling my trip to the UK in the coming months”.
Ukraine claims to have shot down 67 out of 134 drones used in Russian attacks overnight
Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, citing the Ukrainian air force, reports that overnight Ukraine claimed to have shot down 67 out of 134 drones used in Russian attacks.
Additionally the air force reported that 47 drones did not reach their target. Attacks, it said, happened in the Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhia regions.
A Russian drone hit a bus carrying workers in the Ukrainian city of Marhanets early on Wednesday, killing at least nine people and wounding 30 others, according to officials. At least six people were reported injured in the Poltava region.
Local officials in Kherson reported an attack on energy infrastructure by Russia, and warned of the potential for power supply disruptions.
High-level peace talks, which had been due to be held in London, have been postponed and downgraded, after it became clear that US secretary of state Marco Rubio would not be attending.
In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said “the Ukraine peace talks meeting with foreign ministers today is being postponed. Official level talks will continue but these are closed to media.”
Overnight Rubio and the UK’s foreign secretary David Lammy exchanged messages on social media, saying they had enjoyed “productive” talks, with Lammy describing it as “a critical moment for Ukraine, Britain and Euro-Atlantic security.”
Reports in both the Financial Times and by Axios have suggested that the outline of a deal might involve a ceasefire along the existing frontline, the US recognising that Crimea is Russian, and a US veto on Ukraine joining Nato.
Ukraine peace talks with foreign ministers in London postponed
The peace talks, scheduled to take place in London today and to have been hosted by British foreign secretary David Lammy, have been downgraded to official talks, and closed to the media.
In a statement, the UK’s Foreign Office said “the Ukraine peace talks meeting with foreign ministers today is being postponed. Official level talks will continue but these are closed to media.”
More details soon …
Ukraine’s emergency service has issued these pictures from the scene of a drone strike on a bus in Marhanets that killed at least nine people and wounded 30 others, according to officials.
Ahead of the talks in London today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated his country was open to an unconditional ceasefire. On Tuesday night he said “If we are ready for an unconditional ceasefire – it means silence at sea, in the air, and at the front, on the ground – Ukraine is ready to take the relevant steps.”
Overnight, US secretary of state Marco Rubio and the UK foreign secretary David Lammy exchanged pleasantries in public, both saying they had enjoyed “productive” talks.
Lammy said “The UK is working with the US, Ukraine and Europe for peace and to put an end to Putin’s illegal invasion. This is a critical moment for Ukraine, Britain and Euro-Atlantic security.”
Nimo Omer
For today’s First Edition newsletter, my colleague Nimo Omer spoke to the Guardian’s defence and security editor, Dan Sabbagh:
Though Vladimir Putin has paid lip service to the idea of peace, he has not seemed “particularly serious in his desire”, Dan Sabbagh says, in part because Moscow has continued to pursue its maximalist objectives of controlling all of Ukraine’s partially occupied provinces – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
However, according to a report in the Financial Times, the Kremlin has said that it would halt its invasion of Ukraine along the current frontline if the US agreed that Crimea belonged to Russia. Ukraine has rejected any Russian claim on Crimea.
The overall US proposal, thought to be linked to Trump’s threats to walk away from the table completely, is perhaps the first time since the early days of the war that Moscow is stepping back from its maximalist demands. On top of “de-facto recognition” of most of the occupied territories, a plan reported by Axios also includes assurances to Russia that Ukraine will not become a part of Nato, the lifting of sanctions against Russia and bigger economic cooperation between Russia and the US.
After today’s meetings in London, the US is expected to relay Ukraine’s response to Putin, as Witkoff is set to visit Moscow later this week in his fourth meeting with the Russian president.
Ukraine’s priority seems to still be a 30-day ceasefire, as opposed to pivoting to this new US-led framework. How this will shake out in negotiations, as Trump grows increasingly tempestuous, is unclear.
Read more of Nimo Omer and Dan Sabbagh’s discussion here: Wednesday briefing – Can the latest ceasefire talks in London break the stalemate in Ukraine?
The press service of Ukraine’s emergency services has issued these photographs of first responders at the scenes of Russian attacks overnight in Kharkiv and Poltova.
Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, reports that an energry facility in Kherson has been destroyed by a Russian attack. Citing regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin, it reported that “Energy workers are trying to stabilize the energy situation in the city. Forced outages are possible in the near future.”
At least nine killed by Russian drone attack on bus in Marhanets
A Russian drone hit a bus carrying workers in the Ukrainian city of Marhanets early on Wednesday, killing nine people in a wave of attacks that targeted civilian infrastructure in east, south and central Ukraine, officials said.
“The Russians attacked a bus with employees of the enterprise who were on their way to work in Marhanets,” Mykola Lukashuk, head of the Dnipropetrovsk region council, said on Telegram.
Serhiy Lysak, governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, which includes Marhanets, in central-southern Ukraine, said nine people were killed in the attack, with at least 30 injured.
Reuters reports Ukraine’s emergency service said that there was also an attack on the Synelnykivskyi district in the Dnipropetrovsk region that injured two people and sparked a fire at an agricultural enterprise.
Russia also launched “a massive” drone attack on the central Ukrainian region of Poltava, injuring at least six people, the emergency service said in a post on Telegram messaging app. “Solely the city’s civilian infrastructure was under enemy attacks,” the emergency service said.
London to host US and European negotiators for ceasefire talks
Dan Sabbagh and Luke Harding report from Kyiv
David Lammy, the British foreign secretary, will host US and European negotiators for fresh talks about Ukraine on Wednesday amid speculation that Russia has told Washington it might be willing to drop its claim to parts of Ukraine it does not occupy.
The price would include the US making concessions to Moscow such as recognising the 2014 annexation of Crimea, though Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said no such proposal had been shared with him by the White House and that his country could not endorse it.
The emerging US-Russia plan would envisage a ceasefire along roughly the existing frontlines once Moscow’s territorial demand has been dropped, leaks suggest – something that Ukraine has indicated it could accept, as long it did not have to recognise Russian occupation as permanent or legal.
Ukraine would be prevented by a US veto from joining Nato, a point largely accepted by a reluctant Kyiv. The only future security guarantees for Ukraine would be provided by a UK/French-led 30-country “coalition of the willing” to provide a “reassurance force”, but this would not include the US.
It had been hoped that Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, would attend the talks, but the state department said on Tuesday that would no longer be possible and that Keith Kellogg, the White House’s Ukraine envoy, would be present instead.
Welcome and opening summary …
Good morning, welcome to our rolling coverage of the war in Ukraine. Here are the headlines …
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US and European allies will join their UK and Ukraine counterparts in London for the latest round of peace talks
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Leaks have suggested an emerging US-Russia plan would envisage a ceasefire along roughly the existing frontlines, with Moscow dropping further territorial demands, and the US recognising Russia’s occupation of Crimea
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Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said no such proposal about Crimea had been shared with him, by the White House and that his country could not endorse it
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Ukraine would be prevented by a US veto from ever joining Nato, a point now largely accepted by a reluctant Kyiv
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A Russian drone hit a bus carrying workers in the Ukrainian city of Marhanets early on Wednesday, killing nine people in a wave of attacks that targeted civilian infrastructure in east, south and central Ukraine, officials said