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First order of business for new House of Representativeswhich will meet on Friday at the beginning of the 119 Congressis to elect a chairman.
The current hammer bearer, Loudspeaker Mike Johnsonhe seems to be in better shape than the former speaker Kevin McCarthy it was at the start of the 118th Congress, when it took 15 rounds of voting before the Californian got through. He was kicked out just nine months later, making way for Johnson after weeks of chaos.
Mike Johnson’s Riddle
Things seemed to be going Johnson’s way to Elon Musk, Donald Trumpis financial support and ‘First Mate’ tried to sabotage the spending deal as the president-elect pushed through his demand to raise the debt ceiling.
Instead, Johnson did what he and McCarthy had mostly done during the 118th Congress, turning to Democrats for help to pass a temporary spending bill and avoid a government shutdown.
As Republicans and Democrats return to the House on Friday, the GOP’s majority is slim — 219 seats to Democrats’ 215 — giving Johnson less leverage. Meanwhile, several Republicans have shared their reluctance to give Johnson another call.
But one of Johnson’s main calling cards is being endorsed by Trump, who has said he would be willing to call Johnson. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who led efforts to block and subsequently remove McCarthy, is no longer part of the calculations. He resigned from his post when he tried to become Trump’s attorney general and said he would not take his seat in the 119th Congress.
But even with full support Trumpthe Louisiana representative can only afford one Republican revolt against his re-election bid when House members cast their votes, so tight is the GOP’s 219-211 majority over Democrats.
Congressman from Kentucky Thomas Massie has already highlighted his objections to Johnson, speaking to One America News The Matt Gaetz Show on Monday evening that he will not support the current president.
Elsehwere, Texas Rep. Chip Roy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Mackey have both defied Trump before, endorsing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary. They also voted to confirm the 2020 election on January 6, 2021.
Roy said at Steve Bannon’s War Room podcast last month that he wanted to be chairman of the House Rules Committee, which decides which legislation goes to the full House. The Texas representative was one of 20 Republicans who initially blocked McCarthy’s nomination and then blocked Majority Leader Steve Scalise from becoming speaker.
Johnson can put Roy in charge of Rules and do what he has done in the past – work with Democrats to get a two-thirds majority and bypass the rules.
But the slim Republican majority also means that any member can go to Johnson with a list of demands and he essentially has to listen to them. In 2023, McCarthy allowed only one member to call for a motion to leave, prompting a vote of no confidence in the speaker. Although McCarthy said this was the case before the Democrats won the majority, it led to the end of his speech when he managed to enrage eight Republicans and every single Democrat. The new package of rules would require nine members to submit a motion to leave.
But with the incoming Trump administration, Republicans have an incentive to do it quickly.
How the voting process works
The election of the chairman happens before the members are even sworn in. If every lawmaker shows up and votes, Johnson can only afford to lose one vote. The stakes are high because the House of Representatives cannot conduct any business before a speaker is elected, and the House will vote to confirm Trump’s election victory on Monday.
To be elected, the Speaker must win a majority of votes. If all 435 members show up and vote, 218 votes are needed for a majority. With Gaetz out of the house, if all 434 members vote, 218 more votes are needed.
That means Johnson can only lose one vote, and Massie has already pledged to oppose him.
There is no rule that the Speaker must be a member of the House, which means that members can vote for whoever they want, regardless of whether they are officially appointed. Members can also simply abstain from voting by saying “present” instead of supporting a candidate. The number of votes needed to secure the hammer is reduced by the number of abstentions and “present” votes.
What will happen if Johnson doesn’t get the votes
Johnson’s allies are worried it could take several rounds of voting for Johnson to get the hammer. In 2023, McCarthy needed 15 rounds of voting before becoming speaker.
If Johnson doesn’t get votes on the first ballot, Republican leaders can move forward immediately in a runoff or they can stall and try to win over those in their own party who oppose Johnson. Members can also submit requests, such as a motion to adjourn the House.
After McCarthy’s ouster in 2023, several other members were nominated and voted on before Johnson was finally elected.