Your support helps us tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to big tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the finances of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word,’ which shines a light on American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know the importance of analyzing the facts of messaging. .
At such a critical moment in American history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to continue sending journalists to tell both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to block Americans from our reporting and analysis with a paywall. We believe that quality journalism should be available to everyone, and paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes a difference.
Mike Johnson is days away from facing the music as House of Representatives is ready to meet and elect a new speaker for the 119th Congress.
The Trump The loyalist’s tenure as speaker began after he emerged as the consensus candidate last fall, thanks to his ability to win over both moderates and establishment Republicans while maintaining friendly(ish) ties to his party’s frenzied right wing. His election came after the chamber was closed almost a month after the ouster Kevin McCarthyhis predecessor, from the speaker’s chair by a rebellion within the GOP caucus.
The Louisiana congressman has maintained shaky control of his caucus since late October of last year, fueled in part by fatigue resulting from that chaotic period without a speaker. However, whether this will continue in the new Congress is still uncertain.
Chip Roy, a Texas Republican known for clashing with leadership and the MAGA wing of his party over spending, made it clear Tuesday that Johnson still has work to do to win another term.
“Right now, I don’t believe he has the votes on Friday,” the congressman told Fox Business.
“I remain hesitant, as do many of my colleagues, because we’ve seen so many failures last year that we’re concerned it could limit or prevent our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy added.
His suggestions for Johnson’s possible replacements — Byron Donalds and Jim Jordan — come as no surprise, as both ran unsuccessfully for the position when Johnson won the seat. Jordan, a congressman from Ohio, is a perennial contender for the role but has repeatedly failed to win over Republicans from purple districts and others aligned with leadership. Jordan, in a post on Twitterindicated his support for Johnson, although that would not prevent him from running if it was clear that his rival did not have the votes.
Johnson’s biggest advantage ahead of Friday’s vote may be that his critics have yet to come up with an acceptable alternative. The balance of power has changed little in the lower house of Congress, meaning Republicans will still only hold a single-digit majority in the chamber for the upcoming term. Democrats remain united in opposition to the GOP presidential pick, so Johnson will have to unite his caucus to keep his job.
Donald TrumpHis support is not a small factor either. The support of the newly elected president could be enoughMrh to mobilize Trump loyalists like Anna Pauline Luna, who told reporters last month that she was undecided, she returned to Johnson’s camp. It could also backfire, making Johnson increasingly reliant on the president-elect (though that ship may have already sailed).
Another big advantage: absence Matt Gaetz. The former Florida congressman resigned last month just days before the expected release of a report by the House Ethics Committee that found evidence he paid for sex with a minor in 2017, according to Gaetz. His resignation was timed with a last-minute bid to become Trump’s attorney general. Gaetz was the leader of the group of Republicans who ousted McCarthy last year, and the end of his congressional career moves an agent of chaos from the board as Johnson tries to keep a large and unruly club in order.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, who unsuccessfully tried to replicate Gaetz’s performance against Johnson earlier this year, also quietly supports Johnson, according to Punchbowl News.
Republicans tied to leadership, especially long-serving members, are expected to lean on their caucus to avoid the debacle this time around in early 2023, when McCarthy needed more than ten House votes to secure the presidency. .
“I think it would be a big mistake to provoke [Johnson] and anyone who thinks what we did last term worked well, I think they’re mistaken,” said Tom Cole, chairman of the powerful (and highly sought-after) Appropriations Committee The Independent after a GOP caucus meeting last month.
“The challenge started badly for us. That messed things up. Getting rid of Speaker McCarthy was a stupid idea. The reality is that the people who did it didn’t have an exit strategy, an alternative, and it brought it down Congress and the country is in chaos for weeks. So I hope we learn from that.”
The Senate remains another hurdle for any new GOP speaker. Although she returned to Republican control in the November election, she did so by only a handful of votes — far from a filibuster-proof majority. The new leader of the Republican Senate caucus, John Thune, is not expected to pose too much of an obstacle to the Trump administration’s legislative agenda, but it will be hard to sell any of Trump’s more outlandish demands, such as his latest push for his party to trigger a government shutdown unless Democrats do not agree to add language increasing the debt ceiling to the short-term funding measure.
Other Republicans remain doubtful about Johnson’s future in public statements, even with Trump’s support.
“Trump’s endorsement of Mike Johnson will work well, as will his endorsement of Speaker Paul Ryan,” Thomas Massie of Kentucky told reporters.
He explained his frustrations The Independent last month: “[Johnson]is basically a neocon, and Trump, at least in his campaign, is the opposite. … Speaker Johnson will have to do a 180 on most of the policies he has shoved down our throats in the House if he wants to support a Trump term.”