The Buffalo Bills can lock up the No. 2 playoff seed in the AFC with a win over the disappointing New York Jets on Sunday. In the preseason, it appeared to be a matchup that would feature two AFC East contenders, but only the 12-3 Bills have lived up to expectations.
With an upset win, the 4-11 Jets can delay Buffalo’s chance to pull through, as only losses in their final two games can stave off the seemingly inevitable outcome. That scenario seems unlikely, as New England is on the Bills’ agenda to finish the season after facing New York.
Aaron Rodgers can steal some of the limelight with a career milestone. He needs one TD pass to reach the 500 mark for his career. He would become the fifth NFL quarterback to accomplish the feat. The Bills are 10-point favorites, which marks the highest spread in Week 17.
The total is 46 at most sportsbooks, except for FanDuel (46.5). Let’s dive into my expert Jets vs Bills predictions and best bets for NFL Week 17.
Jets vs Bills predictions and best bets
Note: The odds are based on the best value found by our experts as of publication; check the lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
This may be one of the worst games of the week in terms of weather conditions. The early forecast from nflweather.com points to a high chance of rain, but what’s even more concerning are possible wind gusts of up to 31 miles per hour.
The Under may be a strong play due to the expected conditions, though the Bills are used to playing in adverse environments this time of year and Rodgers has plenty of experience as a foul-weather QB. The wind will naturally mess up passing plays.
Even if the conditions aren’t that difficult on game day, which is possible, the spread is too wide for a divisional matchup. The weather would keep the game closer, and Buffalo won the first meeting of the season by three points.
At this point in the season, the Bills are looking to make their running game an engine of wins, and James Cook is coming off his best season as a TD producer. He is tied for the NFL lead with 14 TDs. The Jets allowed three TDs in the last four weeks, so the defense is not a shutdown unit near the goal line.
Jets vs Bills moneyline odds analysis
Why Buffalo could win as a favorite
Best Odds: -500 at Fanatics Sportsbook
The Bills come into this matchup with nine wins in their last 10 games. Buffalo has won seven of the last nine meetings with the Jets. For the first time since 1990, the Bills can mark their third undefeated season at home and would join the Chiefs as the only teams with perfect home records this season.
Josh Allen is stirring up debate for his first NFL MVP award. He ran for TDs in five of his last six games and will be a big factor even with unfavorable weather. In 2024, he has 37 combined passing and rushing TDs (26 TDs, 11 TDs) and is looking to join Rodgers as the only player with 40+ TDs combined in 5+ seasons.
The Bills QB will be the difference maker as he has been all season, especially against an inferior opponent when it matters most.
Buffalo leads the NFL with 28 points taken away, and that’s an important stat to consider when considering the forecast. Six different Bills defenders have recorded two interceptions. Dorian Williams leads the team with three fumble recoveries.
Why the New York Jets could win as underdogs
Best Odds: +375 at Caesars Sportsbook
Allen has struggled in recent matchups with the Jets. In the last five games, they held him to an average of 215 passing yards, with seven scores and six interceptions. New York recorded 16 sacks of Bills QBs in those games.
The Jets won their last road game, at Jacksonville in Week 15, by seven points. If not for two missed field goals, the Jets would have beaten Buffalo in the first meeting of the season, a 23-20 rout of New York.
Davante Adams has caught six scores in nine games for the Jets this season, and will shoot for his sixth career 1,000-yard season. It is 72 meters from the mark. Breece Hall can be a key offensive player. He always enjoys going up against the Bills, as his numbers against him indicate.
Hall finished with a season-high 169 scrimmage yards in the Week 6 meeting. He has 389 scrimmage yards (129.7 per game) in three career games against the Bills.