The New England Patriots hit the road in Week 16 to face the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. The 11-3 Bills currently lead the AFC East by five games, while New England is 3-11 and in last place.
Oddsmakers favor Buffalo ahead of kickoff, with the Bills listed as 14- to 14.5-point favorites, depending on the platform. The game’s over/under is 46.5 across all major sportsbooks. Let’s get into my expert Patriots vs Bills predictions and best bets for NFL Week 16.
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Patriots vs Bills predictions and best bets
- Invoices -14: -110 at BetMGM
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 10.5 receiving yards: -125 to Fanatics
- Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 receptions: -115 at BetMGM
*Note: Odds are based on the best value found by our experts as of publication; check the lines closer to fight night to make sure you get the best odds.
Buffalo has scored 30 or more in its last eight games this season. With Josh Allen as the favorite to win the MVP award, I expect the Bills to be aggressive on offense. With an average margin of victory of +9.6, the Bills are no strangers to dominating football games.
Against a Patriots offense with the second-lowest points per game, I expect this game to break open early and for Buffalo to cover as a result.
The Bills defense allows the most targets, receptions and receiving yards to RBs in the NFL. With the Patriots set as 14-point underdogs, a lot will have to happen if the game breaks open. That should lead to some passes in Stevenson’s direction for him to surpass that total.
This line sits at 12.5 and 13.5 in our other best sports bets, so shaving a few yards off the total makes this Sunday a great value to bet on. Khalil Shakir has five or more sacks in seven of his last eight games. Operating primarily in the slot, he’ll work against Marcus Jones, the Patriots’ second-most targeted cornerback.
With Shakir tallying seven or more goals in each of his last eight games, and his position-leading 83.5% completion rate when he’s on target, he should continue to perform at a high level and break that line week 16.
Patriots vs Bills Money Line Analysis
Why Bills could win as favorite
Best Odds: -1000 on DraftKings
The Bills can win on Sunday because they are riding the momentum of a dominant offense against the Detroit Lions last week en route to a 48-42 victory. Over the last three games, they have led the league in scoring by more than one touchdown.
Allen has been the star of the program, totaling 15 touchdowns in the last four games. However, the Patriots have been beaten by running backs, so James Cook could be a key piece of the game plan for this one.
New England has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to running backs, and Cook’s 12th-ranked yards-per-carry average will be able to wear down the defense all game long. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have also been involved in the offense lately, so look for them to produce.
The Patriots’ 9.3% sack rate ranks in the bottom five in the league, primarily due to offensive tackles. If Gregory Rousseau, who has 7.5 sacks this season, can line up on the outside and take advantage of the mismatch, he should help create big sacks to slow New England’s offense.
Why the Patriots could win as underdogs
Best Odds: +800 at Caesars
The Patriots could win as underdogs if they take advantage of a Bills defense that has allowed the second-most points in the NFL over the past three weeks. So far this season, the Patriots’ offense has struggled to find consistency, but the Bills are allowing the fifth-leading number of first downs in the league. That should help New England keep momentum going.
Drake Maye is the headliner for the Patriots, but the coaches have emphasized wanting him to limit turnovers. That will be very important against a Bills team that is tied for the best turnover differential in the league.
Still, the Patriots’ passing offense has felt a spark since their rookie quarterback took over as the starter. In complete games, the team sees a jump of 92.1 passing yards per game when Maye is under center. Against a Bills team that allows the eighth-most passing yards per game, they’ll need their young pass rusher to step up and produce to match the scoring output of a talented Buffalo offense.
Defensively, there may be no way to stop Allen, but slowing him down is essential for New England to pull off the upset. In the Bills’ three losses this season, the star quarterback was held below a 60 percent completion rate. The Patriots managed to upset the Bills in their first matchup last season. Can they repeat this success this Sunday?