What does fall of Assad in Syria mean for the Middle East and the West?

For more than half a century, one family ruled Syria. Yet almost overnight, as the rebels advanced across the country and eventually reached the capital, Damascus, that brutal reign has come to an end.

After 13 years of civil war under the iron rule of the former A Syrian the leader Bashar al-Assadnow there is hope for the millions of Syrians who have endured a campaign of barrel bombs, enforced disappearances and torture.

But many questions remain as party lines shift and alliances in the region undergo dramatic changes.

How will the fall of the Assad regime reshape geopolitical dynamics around the world and what does this mean for key political players?

Israel

Israeli the prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu took credit for the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, heralding it as a turning point in The Middle East and saying that it was “a direct result of the blows we inflicted on the main supporters of the Assad regime”.

Professor Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consultant at Chatham House, warned against jumping to conclusions about the region’s future. He said The Independent: “Netanyahu would like to take credit for everything but things that went very, very wrong.”

Professor Meckelberg said Israel’s actions “weakened Hezbollah” and deranged Iran‘s supply lines, emboldening Syrian rebels to challenge the Assad regime, but he said the future was still uncertain. He said: “When the 54-year regime completely shuts down and disappears, 48 ​​hours later any prediction would be almost irresponsible.”

One of the main concerns for Israel is the fragmented nature of the Syrian opposition. Rebel groups now fighting for control include factions linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS, raising fears of increased instability along Israel’s northern border.

Professor Meckelberg said we still “don’t know who will control Syria” and while the border with Syria was quiet for decades under the 1974 agreement, that stability is now under threat.

Professor Meckelberg said Israel must tread carefully in the post-Assad landscape: “As a country, you look and see, try to open the channels and see what their intentions are. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”

West

For the West, the collapse of the regime is cause for cautious optimism and considerable concern.

“This is an opportunity to stabilize Syria in a more meaningful way than has ever been possible,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. The Independent.

He continued: “It could open the way for refugees to return and reduce the effects of the conflicts that have had such a big impact on European politics in recent years.”

But Mr Barnes-Dacey said success depended on Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) willingness to embrace power-sharing rather than monopolizing power: “If they want to replace one authoritarian regime with another, then clearly the Europeans must be more cautious about offering incentives.”

In the United States, President Joe Biden and senior officials described the moment as a “historic opportunity” for the Syrian people to move away from decades of oppressive Assad rule. However, they also acknowledged that the country faces significant risks and uncertainties during this transition period.

President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his longstanding opposition to US involvement in Syria. On social media, Trump dismissed Syria as “not our fight” and warned against further engagement.

The United Kingdom, the EU and the United States have designated HTS as a terrorist organization, and Barnes-Dacey warned that governments risk viewing the situation “through the lens of fear and threats,” which could perpetuate negative dynamics.

Mr Barnes-Dacey said strong leadership was needed to mobilize economic resources and end sectoral sanctions against Syria that could create pathways for recovery and growth. He said sanctions were “obviously an obstacle, but not insurmountable” if used to achieve positive results. He continued: “Given the dire situation in the country, it is imperative.”

Russia

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime exposed a vulnerability in Moscow’s reach, with implications for its ambitions not only in the region, but also in Africa and Europe.

said Russian expert Mark Galeotti The Independent much depends on whether Russia can retain its two key military bases in Syria: Tartus, a naval facility, and Khmeimim Air Base.

Losing these would also undermine Russia’s power in Africa, as the bases served as staging points for operations across the continent. Galeotti said that “the loss of Tartus would mean the end of any pretensions to being a real naval power”. Losing the Khmeimim airbase would also complicate Moscow’s logistical capabilities, forcing Russia to rely on Turkish airspace for supply routes, he said.

Despite the loss of Assad, a key ally of Russian President Putin, Mr Galeotti said he was “struck by the relative calm in Russian official narratives”.

Keir Giles of Chatham House said: “The fall of Assad is undoubtedly a setback for Russia’s ambitions to project power in the Middle East.” He suggested that Assad’s fall could signal to other authoritarian regimes that Russian support has limits.

“This presents an opportunity for Western powers – if they are willing and able to take advantage of it – to undermine the willingness of some of the most odious regimes in the world to invoke Russian influence,” he said.

Turkey

The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has left most global powers scrambling to rethink their strategies in Syria, but for Turkey it presents a unique opportunity to consolidate its influence in the region.

Like Catherine Philp of The Times he said: “No country is better positioned than Turkey to emerge as the big winner after the fall of Assad.” Bronwen Maddox, director of Chatham House, pointed to the complexity: “Turkey is close to al-Jawlani [leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] but he does not control his forces; The Syrian National Army is more of a proxy for Ankara. Until now, Turkey has focused on issues near its border, particularly the challenge posed by Kurdish fighters. Now he has to deal with what is happening in Damascus and southern Syria.”

Wallace says Erdogan’s success in uniting various rebel factions, including HTS, was key to Damascus’ downfall. With Russia and Iran mourning the loss of their ally and the West evaluating its next steps, Turkey is poised to assert itself as the dominant player in Syria’s uncertain future.

Iran

Assad’s fall marks a significant blow to Iran’s influence in the Middle East, dismantling a key part of its regional strategy. For more than a decade, Tehran has invested heavily in supporting the Assad regime, but now Iran is facing the collapse of its network of influence.

Iran’s investment in Syria was not only to support an ally, but also to ensure a direct supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Mohammad Javad Akbarin, a dissident Iranian political analyst, said German wave (DW) that Tehran may now focus on preventing the establishment of a stable government in Syria in order to maintain influence in the region.

In its first statement since Assad’s fall, Iran’s foreign ministry emphasized its historic ties to Syria, signaling its intention to maintain relations with any new leadership that emerges.