This year is almost certain to be the hottest year on record. It will also be the first time the average temperature is more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, which further advances the climate crisis.
Dated in November by the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) The average global surface temperature for the month was found to be 1.62C above the level before the mass burning of fossil fuels drove global warming. With data for the 11 months of 2024 now available, scientists said the average for the year is expected to be 1.60C, exceeding the 2023 estimate of 1.48C.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said: “We can now confirm with virtual certainty that 2024 will be the warmest on record and the first calendar year above 1.5C. This does not mean the Paris Agreement is on hold, but ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever.
The Paris climate convention 196 signatories commit to keeping global warming below 1.5C to limit the impact of climate disasters. But this is measured over a decade or two, not a single year.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of keeping below the 1.5C limit also appears longer and more remote over the long term. Co2 Planet-warming emissions are expected to rise in 2024despite a global commitment made as late as 2023 to “transition from fossil fuels”.
Fossil food emissions must fall by 45% by 2030 to have the ability to limit warming to 1.5C. Recent Cop29 The climate summit did not reach agreement on how to advance the transition from coal, oil and gas. C3S data showed that November 2024 was the 16th month in a 17-month period in which the average temperature exceeded 1.5C.
The supercharges of extreme weather during the climate crisis are already evident when there are high tides previously impossible with intensity and frequency now battering the world, with fiercer storms and worse waves.
In 2024, most of the fires were lit in North and South America, the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (Dear) reported last week. The fires were driven by severe droughts affecting the western US, Canada, the Amazon rainforest and especially the Pantanal wetlands.
Mark Parrington, a senior scientist at Cams, said: “The scale of some fires in 2024 will be at historic levels, especially in Bolivia, the Pantanal and parts of the Amazon,” he said. “Canadian wildfires were once again extreme, although not on record for 2023.” The fires caused high levels of air pollution across the continent for weeks, he said.
Economic damage caused by extreme weather, according to research institute insurance firm Swiss Re. Its data revealed economic losses in 2024 rose by 6% to $320bn, a figure 25% higher than the average over 10 years ago.
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Hurricanes Helene and Milton and more severe thunderstorms in the US, as well as flooding in Europe and the UAE, contributed to health damage. However, less than half of the losses worldwide were covered by insurance as poorer people could not afford the premiums.
“Damages are likely to increase as climate change exacerbates extreme weather events, while assets increase in high-risk areas due to urban runoff. Adaptation is therefore key and protective measures such as ditches, levees and flood gates are up to 10 times more effective than building,” said the Swiss.