DALLAS – Tyler O’Neill, who led the Red Sox with 31 home runs in 2024, will not return to Boston’s lineup next season. O’Neill has reportedly agreed to terms with the Orioles on a three-year, $49.5 million deal that includes an opt-out clause after 2025..
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Of the eight Red Sox free agents, O’Neill was perhaps the most likely to return. Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow publicly stated that there was mutual interest in a meeting with right-handed power being a major need for Boston this winter. However, this initial interest did not develop into serious research. A source told MassLive’s Sean McAdam on Saturday that the Red Sox, somewhat surprisingly, never made an offer to O’Neill before reaching a deal with the O’s.
Here are three takeaways from the news he’s directed elsewhere in the American League East:
1. One of Boston’s top options in Juan Soto is off the market, and that market is moving faster than expected.
The Red Sox’s top target is, obviously Juan Soto, who could make his big decision as soon as Sunday. Boston is still there, as are the other major contenders (both New York teams, the Blue Jays and the Dodgers).
But as Breslow acknowledged Friday, the Sox must be ready for Soto to go elsewhere. They have their contingency plans in place and perhaps the most logical thing was to work quickly to secure a deal for a right-handed player like O’Neill or Teoscar Hernandez. Now, O’Neill is off the board as is Willy Adames, who agreed to a seven-year, $182 million deal with the Giants earlier in the day. It’s a bit of a surprise that the big-name bats moved before Soto’s decision, but Baltimore and San Francisco aren’t involved in the Soto tender and were therefore free to move.
Hernandez remains the best option for the Red Sox if Soto goes elsewhere, and Boston has expressed serious interest in the slugger for the second straight winter, according to a source. So have the Yankees and Dodgers, who also see him as a secondary option behind Soto. With suitors piling up, it’s likely, sources say, that Hernandez will wait for Soto to sign and then hit the remaining market. The Red Sox will be active on him if things play out that way, but would have to give up a draft pick to sign him as a qualified free agent.
Other adjustments are more complicated. Free agents Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as top trade candidate Nolan Arenado, would only fit if the Red Sox made a trade (Masataka Yoshida?) and/or move Rafael Devers off third base. A long-term deal for Anthony Santander doesn’t make much sense with so many talented young outfielders on the roster. Christian Walker doesn’t fit. Someone like the versatile Jurickson Profar (a switch hitter) or veteran slugger Paul Goldschmidt could be in play as line contingencies.
The Red Sox couldn’t make a move for an outfielder and still have enough good players to field a trio. But the need to balance the offense is real.
2. The Red Sox letting O’Neill walk for nothing after a career year isn’t ideal, but understandable.
The Red Sox had two chances to recoup some value for O’Neill, both at the trade deadline and after the season. They could have traded him to a team looking for a bat or issued him the qualifying offer and received draft pick compensation if he signed elsewhere.
Neither materialized, so O’Neill will be leaving for nothing. And while it’s easy to second-guess both decisions, in context, neither made much sense.
Breslow pledged to add instead of subtract before the deadline and he stuck to it, even if the additions he made weren’t splashy (or effective). But there’s a difference between making marginal upgrades, staying on your feet, or swapping out a key piece or two. Trades for rentals like O’Neill, Nick Pivetta, and Kenley Jansen would look great now, but at the end of July, the Red Sox were still in contention and the team had played well enough not to be separated. Of course, the second-half collapse rendered this unimportant.
Some believed the Sox would give O’Neill the qualifying offer ($21.05 million through 2025), but they ended up surprising many when they qualified Pivetta (in a move that will likely be worth it if he signs in somewhere else and Boston gets a pick). If you consider O’Neill’s deal to be a one-year deal, and that’s fair given the opt-out, it will soon become clear whether or not he would have accepted the qualifying offer. His 2025 salary isn’t known yet, but it’s almost certainly less than $21 million. It would be somewhat surprising if the deal was structured to pay him that much next year and then $14-15 million over the final two seasons.
The Red Sox, knowing they planned to go hard after Soto, probably didn’t want to risk O’Neill accepting his qualifying offer and further cramming an already overwhelmed outfield mix.
3. Even for just one year, O’Neill’s trade was a huge win for Breslow.
O’Neill’s stay in Boston was short, but there’s no way to describe the December trade that netted him two relievers other than a big win for Breslow. O’Neill was a perfect fit in the lineup, hitting 31 home runs and putting together the second best year of his seven big league seasons. Like Hunter Renfroe and Adam Duvall before him, O’Neill thrived in his role and was a major contributor.
The Red Sox gave up virtually nothing for him either. Right-hander Nick Robertson made just eight appearances for St. Louis, rebounded numerous times in September and is now part of the Blue Jays organization. Victor Santos had a 5.61 ERA in 77 innings at Triple-A and is not considered a prospect. The move was a well-executed buy low decision by Breslow; he’ll have to hit more even as the Red Sox return to their big-spending ways.