Hsince he did not solve the crisis of the state in France when a the prime minister is dependent on the rightPresident Emmanuel Macron is exploring a deal with the Socialist Party (PS) to provide a new government for the country, to avert the economic crisis. But his room to maneuver is severely limited and the non-entry league with the left center can only be determined temporarily.
It has been a humiliating week for the centrist president, the great hope of European leadership, since he was first elected in 2017. Macron’s first choice for prime minister, after the collapse of the National Assembly led to a suspended parliament in June; was Michael Barnierthe EU’s master Brexit interpreter. But the Alpine banker’s Cannes branch has wove its consensus building magic on stubborn French politicians who have refused to share public spending cuts – and are already fighting for the Macron family to succeed.
Barnier made one concession after another to attract them Marine Le PenThe hard-line anti-immigration leader of the National Union has kept his government alive, but his seven-screen dance won no favors in exchange. Le Pen has ordered her deputies to vote on a motion of no confidence in the plan by hard-line writer Jean-Luc Mélénchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) party, pulling the plug on France’s shortest-lived primary.
While politicians in Paris were locked in a blame game over Barnier’s downfall, France’s dwindling wealth in Europe was on display the next day when Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, flew to Uruguay to sign the long-standing opposition to Macron. expected trade a lot with South American countries in Mercosur. France fears a European flood of cheap beef and soya beans produced at lower standards than in Europe. During the protests of the farmers, Paris could not move enough land to oppose the limits of the agreement, which greatly favors German industry.
It is not clear if von der Leyen was invited after the trade deal, but the Commission said he did not want to attend the ceremonial renovation of Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris this weekend alongside Macron, the US president-elect, Donald Trump, the German chancellor; Olavi Scholzius and many princes of the world.
The president had hoped that the spectacular restoration of the Gothic terminus, which was badly damaged by fire in 2019, would spark an uplift of “hope”. But France looks sick Europe with parliament deadlocked, people angry and volatile, public funds in chronic deficits and the gates of power rattling far away.
Claudius Macron, who Rejection calls for resignation and has vowed to serve his term until 2027, naming a new prime minister fast to try to pull the country out of a deep funk and restore confidence before the financial markets start to panic. Borrowing costs have already risen to par with Greece’s debt to instability, but the stock market has held steady and Paris has been forced out of eurozone membership with a German bailout.
The Socialist leader, Olivier Faure, appeared to throw Macron’s life on Friday, saying his party was ready to seek the president’s partnership agreements on all matters and the government for a fixed period if there were “reciprocal concessions”. He did not name the plan for such a deal, but after Macron agreed that the next prime minister would come from the left, and the Socialists would not join the government under the conservative prime minister.
The president is highly unlikely to name the head of the left-wing government, which would almost certainly leave the conservative Les Républicains (LR), denying him a majority in the 577-seat assembly. Any mainstream government not dependent on Le Pen needs the support of both the LR, which has 47 seats, the PS with 66, and 163 MPs from Macron’s centrist coalition and 23 independents.
It is a surprise that he came under the cross from the radical left and mainstream conservatives, not to mention sniping in his direction over his consultation. It means that the socialists are trying to break the hard embrace of the left.
Mélénchon was furious that Faure had no mandate from the New Popular Front (NFP) – an alliance of left-wing parties that had jointly contested the parliamentary elections in June. The NFP emerged as the largest force in the National Assembly, but far from the majority.
The conservative interior minister, Bruno Retaileau, said that the “right” could not “compromise with the left”, accusing the Socialists of colluding with the extreme left and refusing to break with Mélénchon, despite his virulent anti-Israel comments and “irresponsible criticisms of the movement” through the budget. But other LR assistants said that it would not be possible to censure the Socialists if the prime minister was called by law.
One veteran figure seems to fit the picture as a potential compromise prime minister: Francis Bayrou. Mayor Pau and the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem) could be acceptable to both parties, at least for a certain period of time and with a defined agenda.
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The biggest challenge will be the demands of the Socialists to demand Macron’s unpopular pension, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 – still among the lowest in Europe. The president’s repeal of that flagship measure is a red line. But Faure hinted that he could take a cool time in his retirement age, or accept some amendments to the law.
Both the Socialists and Les Républicains – the two governing parties France alternately between 1958 and 2017 – they struggle to survive and win voters from the more radical forms of political protest, which include Le Pen on the right and Mélénchon on the left.
For the Socialists, there is a risk that the NFP party could be inflated, launching a parricide war on the left, who are holding courts around the country in the municipal elections of 2026. For Les Républicains, there is a risk that Le Pen will continue to capture her conservative electorate of the middle class, farmers and pensioners, while they unite her in disillusioned workers and angry young voters.
In the village there is no culture of compromise, even when dealing with the other side is often fueled by treachery. A compromise between the centrists, the Socialists and Les Républicains may give France a stable government for some time, but it may just as likely pave the way for Le Pen to travel to the Élysée Palace in 2027 or earlier.
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