Starting Monday, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow will oversee the Red Sox’s efforts at the winter meetings, his second year at the helm.
Last year, newly hired, Breslow, handcuffed by ownership-imposed payroll limitations, led an offseason that was largely uneventful. Although some trades were made during the winter, the Red Sox signed just two major league free agents from the end of the previous season to the start of spring training.
This year things are different. The Sox have already added two bullpen arms (Justin Wilson and Aroldis Chapman) and they remain very much in the running for free agent outfielder Juan Soto, while also engaging in talks for some top-line starting pitchers.
Breslow spoke with MassLive.com on the eve of the Winter Meetings and discussed a number of topics:
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* The Red Sox are being perceived differently this winter.
“It’s time to deliver,” Breslow said. “It seems like the (information) that’s been made publicly available is that people are taking a more aggressive stance (from us). But again, it’s hard for me to be the person to answer the question about how people are responding to us others”.
Breslow said that in the discussions so far, the point that has been brought up repeatedly is the strength of the team’s player development system, emerging prospects and the presence of talented young players already on the roster. the major league
“Not just the agents, but the players we’re talking to,” Breslow said, “they’re aware of the strength of the system and the young core of guys like (Wilyer) Abreu winning a Gold Glove and Jarren (Duran) 8.0 win season (WAR) and Ceddanne (Rafaela) playing shortstop and center field. And also look at four of the top 25 prospects in baseball who finished the season in Triple A. When can this one be painted image of a young core that has established itself in the big leagues and a secondary wave that is not far behind and will affect the team as early as 2025, I think people are realizing that this is an organization that is the right direction, which will compete in the short term, but also for several years.”
* The Sox are navigating multiple paths to building a roster, with multiple balls in the air at once.
Breslow could not discuss the pursuit of any individual free agent or trade target, but he appeared to be making a reference to Juan Soto here.
“I think the one thing we want to avoid,” Breslow said, “is to put ourselves in a position where the success of our offseason hinges on a single transaction. Because there’s too much uncertainty around that .We have to constantly think, “Okay, this is Plan A, but what does Plan B look like?” And so on. I don’t think anyone has the tolerance for that in February and say, “Success of our offseason depended on this one transaction and we failed at it, so our offseason didn’t work.” That’s not good enough.
“This versatility is beneficial for several reasons. One, it opens up different avenues to improve the roster because we have the flexibility to move guys in and out and a number of guys that can handle multiple positions. And as the season goes on, we’ve seen how aggressive Alex (Cora) is in managing the game and trying to create optimal matchups.”
* As they pursue multiple starting pitching options, the Red Sox are acutely aware that the outfield defense needs to be improved.
“We are very attentive,” he said. “I saw 162 games and I recognize that a big part of the equation, especially for a starting rotation that was primarily about handling hard contact and pitching in the zone, is the ability to turn balls in play into outs and not We did so well. That’s a responsibility we all share. We’ve made some changes to the (coach).
“At the same time, there are opportunities that we can take advantage of to improve the structure of the working day and really target the defense. Part of the reason we’re so excited to bring (first base coach Jose Flores) from Worcester to the big leagues is the role he played in coaching the infield defense over the last few years and the improvements we have seen, specifically. with a number of people who will be in the big leagues.”
Breslow also noted that the return to full health for two players on the left side of the infield — shortstop Trevor Story and third baseman Rafael Devers — will lead to improvement. The team led all of MLB in infield errors.
* Breslow seemed to downplay the likelihood of moving Rafael Devers to DH or first base.
“When we think about the improvements on the position player side,” he said, “it takes an incredibly talented position player to represent an improvement over what we already have. When you compare that to pitching additions, where we have holes in our rotation , we’re going to realize all the value of the guys that we bring in. But the foundation that we’re starting on the position player side, fortunately, is pretty good.”
* The Sox are open to exploring some relievers on the market who might have the ability to start.
Last year, the team had interest in both Jordan Hicks and Seth Lugo, who made the transition. This year, Clay Holmes is yet another example of a pitcher being marketed as a candidate to transition from a reliever to a starter.
“It’s definitely something we think about and wrestle with,” Breslow said, “as we try to find solutions to problems in a way that might be different than our other 29 competitors because the competition is really fierce and we have to figure out how to take advantage of that. So if there are guys that we think can handle an extra workload and have the ability to strike out lefties and righties and throw enough strikes the order twice…that’s one way.
“We’re open-minded about all these things. In a perfect world, you’d have five starters going 200 innings each, but things don’t usually work that way anymore.”
* The team hopes to see improvement over the next week and beyond.
“One thing I’ve learned in 12 months is not to go into the winter meetings with a shopping list,” Breslow said, “and expect that in three or four days you’ll be completely done. But I think we have a pretty fair understanding of our needs. It’s so hard to predict the timing because we alone can’t force a decision, whether it’s with other teams around trades or free agents.
“We’ve done a good job of analyzing what the markets are like, but we have to move from this idea of talking about things to actually executing them.”
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Should the Red Sox win the Soto Sweepstakes, how would he fit into the team’s lineup and defensive alignment?
From a batting order perspective, Soto would likely fit best in the No. 2 or No. 3 hole in the lineup, likely hitting in front of or behind Devers.
This is not a perfect fit, of course. Unlike his time with the Yankees when he hit in front of right-hander Aaron Judge to form the game’s most lethal 1-2 lineup, Soto will be grouped with a bunch of other left-handed hitters if he chooses Boston. In fact, it could be that the Sox have three lefties in a row to top their order, topped by outfielder Jarren Duran for first, followed by some combination of Soto and Devers.
This is less than optimal, as it would invite opponents to use a left-handed reliever against the trio, without fear of having to face a righty from that group. As imperfect as it may be, though, it’s hard to imagine these three breaking out, as the only formidable right-handed hitter on the current roster is Trevor Story, who profiles best as someone better suited for the middle third of the lineup .
Again, the trio is successful enough to hold their own against lefties. Devers’ performance against lefties last year was low (.244), but lifetime, he’s hit .265 against them with a .739 OPS.
As for Duran, he hit .255 against lefties, respectable if not exactly shocking, especially considering his .655 OPS when facing lefties. Finally, there’s Soto himself, who last season was nearly as lethal against lefties (.966 OPS) as he was against righties (.999).
From a defensive standpoint, Soto is likely to play left field for the Red Sox. Despite surprisingly being named a Gold Glove finalist last season, Soto is considered a below-average defender and it’s impossible to imagine the Red Sox trusting him with the expansive right field at Fenway.
Soto played well for the Yankees, but that’s partly because Yankee Stadium plays completely different than Fenway. In the Bronx, left field is the biggest area to defend, leading the Yankees to go with former Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo.
Left field at Fenway is a much less difficult position, which makes Soto the best. That, in turn, would mean Duran would move to center. A year ago, he split time between left and center, but with Soto taking over in left, Duran wouldn’t have that option.
This leaves right field open, for now, to Ceddanne Rafaela or Wilyer Abreu. Abreu won a Gold Glove for his play there during his rookie season and Rafaela also has the range and arm to move and handle the position. A lot will depend on what else the Red Sox do this winter. If Abreu is part of a trade package to land the team as a front-of-the-rotation starter, as has been speculated, Rafaela could start the year off right.
But before long, the Red Sox will find room for Roman Anthony, their top prospect and, in the eyes of some, the best prospect in the sport. While it seems unlikely that Anthony will make the team in spring training, an arrival in Boston sometime in the first half of 2025 is all but assured.
That, in turn, could lead to Rafaela being used as a super utility guy, or perhaps as a candidate to win the second base job. There, he would presumably have to beat out Vaughn Grissom, David Hamilton and maybe Kristian Campbell.