How did this happen?
The roots of the impasse lie in President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the parliamentary elections in June and then break the elections, which split the parliament into three equal parts with no majority.
That meant Barnier’s minority centrist and center-right government, in fact based at the mercy of the New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and the far-right National Rally (RN), which together had enough MPs to dissuade.
On Monday, Barnier said he will go through the social security part of the budget without a parliamentary vote – the reason that resists MPs is the ability to challenge the government without the confidence of the voters.
Both the left and the far right have pledged to do so this afternoon, after the debate is due to start at 4pm local time (3pm GMT). The next vote on the proposed motion – there are two – is expected at around 7pm.
No new elections can be held until June, and Macron – who is considering resigning or at least shunning the season – will face the task of forming a new government with parliament more bitterly divided than ever.
There is an internal explanation of what the crisis is, why it is happening now, and here are the possible options for Macron:
You can also read about the crisis here and, in the stand back; big-picture analysis, here.
Key events
In a session of parliamentary questions to ministers earlier this afternoon, government speaker Maud Bregeon accused the left-wing opposition of the NFP and the far-right RN of being a “chaos machine”; BfM-TV reported.
In a few hours, Bregeon said, “the struggles of RN and NFP converge. Every MP will then make a choice based on that knowledge, and before their voters they will have to worry about the root of the country’s long-term undermining.
President Emmanuel Macron returned from a presidential visit to Saudi Arabia earlier on Wednesday and was pressured by both left and far-right MPs to step down, saying he was talking about potentially resigning as “make-believe politics”.
Macron told reporters that he “is here because I have been elected twice by the French people”, adding: “We should not scare people with such things. We have a strong economy.”
Leader of the center-left Socialist Party (PS), part of the leftist party NFP; said Le Monde Macron will need to clear up his empty intentions if the Barnier government is indeed to fall.
“After dropping a few words to visit Saudi Arabia, Macron now needs to talk to the French,” he said. “How can the French be left in this uncertainty just before Christmas?”
A note about the mechanics of the afternoon and early evening: the parliamentary debate kicks off at 4pm local time (3pm GMT) with a discussion of extraneous material left by the radical LFI.
This means that the debate on the two no-confidence motions will begin at around 4.45pm. One movement based on the NFP left will be debated, and the other will be discussed on the right by the RN.
One speaker from each parliamentary group will address the movement, starting with MP Eric Coquerel for the LFI. It will follow Marine Le Pen for the RN, the Socialist Party (PS), the center-right Les Républicains, the Prasinorum and the various centrist parties that make up Emmanuel Macron’s coalition.
Each speaker is strictly time-limited, so we’re pretty sure we’ll have about two and a half or two and three hours of discussion, with the vote then at about 7.45 pm local time. Voting about 45 minutes.
MPs will vote first on a motion of no confidence in the NFP – the second most likely. To succeed, the motion needs 288 votes – a little less than the 289 meeting of the majority of the board, because there are three by-elections.
In the beginning, then. Michael Barnier and his fate is to be determined by approximately 8.30pm this evening.
How did this happen?
The roots of the impasse lie in President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the parliamentary elections in June and then break the elections, which split the parliament into three equal parts with no majority.
That meant Barnier’s minority centrist and center-right government, in fact based at the mercy of the New Popular Front (NFP) coalition and the far-right National Rally (RN), which together had enough MPs to dissuade.
On Monday, Barnier said he will go through the social security part of the budget without a parliamentary vote – the reason that resists MPs is the ability to challenge the government without the confidence of the voters.
Both the far left and the far right have pledged to do so this afternoon, after the debate is set to begin at 4pm local time (3pm GMT). The next vote on the proposed motion – there are two – is expected at around 7pm.
No new elections can be held until June, and Macron – who is considering resigning or at least shunning the season – will face the task of forming a new government with parliament more bitterly divided than ever.
There is an internal explanation of what the crisis is, why it is happening now, and here are the possible options for Macron:
You can also read about the crisis here and, in the stand back; big-picture analysis, here.
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The looming political crisis in France after the new summer could take a dramatic turn this afternoon, with the three-month old government of French Prime Minister Michel Barnier He thought that it was likely to be slaughtered by no confidence in the movement.
If successful, the vote – on the delivery of the government’s proposed 2025 budget, which includes €60bn (£50bn) in tax hikes and cuts – would make Barnier’s fragile administration the first in France in this way from 1962 it should be carried out.
They will also become the shortest government in the history of the Fifth Republic, which began in 1958, and plunge the core EU member state into an even deeper crisis weeks before Donald Trump comes to the White House.
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